Look, Nate (Chace Crawford), it’s nothing personal about you that makes us want you to die on Gossip Girl before the final tip is sent. Well, actually, it is. There are a lot of things about you that make you our number-one candidate for mortality by the end of the final season.
Mostly, we think someone who actually matters should die before the show is over. When Bart Bass “died” before, Chuck (Ed Westwick) was devastated for a while and Lily (Kelly Rutherford) grieved for like five minutes before moving on with Rufus (Matthew Settle). But it had no effect on anyone else who matters, really. If he were to bite the dust again, the only real effect would be on Chuck and Blair (Leighton Meester), but we’ll get back to that.
Nate is a strange anomaly. He has always been in the inner circle, but he’s never really made a huge impact. He is Chuck’s best friend, and sometimes Dan (Penn Badgley)’s too, but he hasn’t done anything significant or dated a character that has stuck around since... well, Blair in Season 1. And when we met that couple, they were already on their way out.
Every storyline involving Nate is on the outskirts. He dates the new characters — The Duchess, Bree Buckley, Raina Thorpe, Diana Payne (Elizabeth Hurley), Juliet (Katie Cassidy), Lola (Ella Rae Peck) — and he has a business that barely ever interacts with central people. Sure, Serena once blogged for him, and Dan screwed him over, but that’s largely it.
His only family on the show at this point are his friends. Although their lives are more interesting than his own, he affects Chuck, Dan, Serena, and Blair strongly because of a history that has largely been left out of the everyday action. If he were to die, he would impact the characters in their final moments enough that his role would have been worthwhile.
Another side effect, for all you Chair shippers (us included), is that his death might force Chuck and Blair to see how short life is and that waiting until everything is perfectly laid out is a silly way to live. Or die.