This cut is gonna hurt. According to ABC, the couple taking fourth-place on Dancing With the Stars Season 16 will be eliminated within the first hour of Tuesday’s Results Show and, in a final element of the competition, the three remaining couples will perform an Instant Dance. 

So it sounds like one couple is going to have to just watch that play out, knowing they came so close. Who will end up in fourth-place this season? Well, we have four options. Here’s the leaderboard after Monday night’s Week 10 Performance Show:

ZendayaVal — 30 + 5 + 30 = 65

KellieDerek — 30 + 4 + 30 = 64

AlyMark — 28 + 3 + 30 = 61

JacobyKarina — 27 + 2 + 27 = 56

So far this season, the couple with the lowest score has gone home. But that was before the Finals, back when the season was predictable. It’s still possible that trend will keep going and Jacoby will be the fourth-place finisher. However, he looks like he’s in danger, and sometimes fans rally to the couple that looks most in need of saving. Plus, some fans may not have been into Aly & Mark’s unique and polarizing (get it?) pole dancing Freestyle, despite its perfect score. It seemed to get a mixed response online and it remains to be seen if that affected voting. Then again, both Zendaya and Jacoby used kids in their Super-Sized Freestyles, but the judges noted that Jacoby kind of got lost in his production; he wasn’t the focal point, and that may hurt him.

However (it keeps going back and forth!), Jacoby is a Super Bowl-winning football player with Ravens Nation behind him, the way Steeler Nation and Packer Nation were behind DWTS winners Hines Ward and Donald Driver. You can never count out the fan bases of football players.

So … if we had to guess … we’d say Aly is taking fourth, based on Jacoby’s football fans making a big save. That’s the guess for now, but it could easily be Jacoby. We’d be shocked if it was Kellie or Zendaya. What do you think? Sound off in the comments!