Someone is getting dumped the day after prom. That’s harsh. So who will be the first Dancing With the Stars 2013 couple to be eliminated by the fans, as opposed to an unexpected injury? Here’s the judges’ leaderboard, after the Week 3 Performance Show, not counting the extra points that will be given to the Prom King and Queen (we’re guessing Kellie and Derek):

KellieDerek — 25

ZendayaVal — 24

JacobyKarina — 24

AlyMark — 23

VictorLindsay — 23

LisaGleb — 21

IngoKym — 21

SeanPeta — 21 

AndySharna — 18

D.L. Cheryl — 16

WynonnaTony — 15

At this point, it’s easier to pick out who will last beyond Week 3. The four people at the top of the judges leaderboard — Kellie Pickler and Derek Hough, Zendaya Coleman and Val Chmerkovskiy, Jacoby Jones and Karina Smirnoff, and Aly Raisman and Mark Ballas — may just be there all season, fighting it out as everyone else slips away. Who slips away first?

Last week, we know Lisa Vanderpump and Gleb Savchenko and Victor Ortiz and Lindsay Arnold were the bottom two. Victor and Lindsay got a higher score this week, but that may just give them the appearance of safety. The scores aren’t that far apart this week, and with such a disparity in Twitter followers and pro fan bases, scores are a small part of this game.

Wynonna Judd and Tony Dovolani are at the bottom, and she kind of deserved it. The judges gave her the lowest scores but they were more gentle with their comments than they were with D.L. Hughley. He got another rough ride, and it’s possible sympathy votes will help him again — or Cheryl Burke’s huge following. Wynonna has country music fans behind her, but she’s also had three weeks where she’s been asked to stop being so tentative and really unleash out there. If she hasn’t done it by now, how many more chances will she get? Andy Dick and Sharna Burgess are three spots up from the bottom, so they may appear safe. He’s a great underdog to root for, but neither Andy nor Sharna has the kind of built-in following other couples brought with them into the season.

We’re also worried about two couples in the 21 club: Lisa and Gleb, since we know they were in danger before (which may actually help motivate their fans this week), and Ingo Rademacher and Kym Johnson. Ingo has the loyal General Hospital fan base, but their dances have been good but not great or awful. When there are no extremes, it’s easy to get forgotten in the middle.

If we had to guess, we’d say Wynonna and Tony are leaving, for failing to do more than play dress up to “Pour Some Sugar on Me.” Never waste a perfectly good Def Leppard song!

What’s your guess for the Week 3 elimination?