They say the scores don’t really mean much on Dancing With the Stars All-Stars — and it’s been proven pretty true in the past few eliminations. But we have to start somewhere. Two weeks ago, Sabrina Bryan topped the leaderboard and went home. No one saw that coming. Should we expect something similar for tonight’s double elimination, or have we learned from that?

Let’s take a look at the leaderboard for a minute. Here’s the ranking, including scores from last week and last night’s two dances.

Melissa Rycroft & Tony Dovolani — 39 + 30 + 30 = 99
Shawn Johnson & Derek Hough — 38 + 29.5 + 26 = 93.5
Kelly Monaco & Valentin Chmerkovskiy — 36 + 28 + 28.5 = 92.5
Emmitt Smith & Cheryl Burke —  34.5 + 28 + 30 = 92.5
Gilles Marini & Peta Murgatroyd — 33.5 + 29.5 + 29 = 92
Apolo Anton Ohno & Karina Smirnoff — 33 + 29.5 + 29 = 91.5
Kirstie Alley & Maksim Chmerkovskiy — 28 + 27 + 24 = 79

Melissa and Tony are not only at the top, they are way at the top, a full 5.5 points ahead of second place and 20 points above Kirstie Alley and Maks. That’s a larger spread than during Sabrina Week. Then again, the scoring system is tricky and includes a ratio of how many total points were awarded. Most of the pack is probably very close together, but is this the week where being at the bottom will actually mean you go home? That hasn’t been the case since Week 1, but it does seem like Kirstie and Maks are so far below the rest of the group that it may have caught up to them this time — especially when the bottom two couples are leaving. But maybe their fan base is so big that the scores are truly irrelevant. Nothing would surprise us anymore.

Apolo and Karina are right above Kirstie and Maks. We think they were underscored in the past two weeks, so it’s possible others agreed and will rally to save them from the actual bottom two. (They weren’t necessarily in the real bottom two last time, with Sabrina. They were just the stand-ins.) Above Apolo is Gilles, who has apparently fallen out of favor with judge Carrie Ann Inaba, since she keeps finding new fault with him. Above Gilles is Emmitt, and even though we think Emmitt was overscored this week, he does have that football fan base. They are quiet but deadly, those football fans. Emmitt won Season 3 without being the very best dancer and even though we’re not thinking he’s a frontrunner to win All-Stars, with seven couples left, he may still be safe into the Semifinals. The Team Vally fan base seems pretty strong, so we’re not too worried about Kelly and Val. Then again, when we don’t feel worried for a couple … maybe that’s the best sign that we should be worried. (Mind melt!) Shawn and Derek will be fine. We’re calling that one now. And Melissa is probably safe in her tower up there at the top. She has yet to be in the “official” bottom two, unlike Sabrina was before she was eliminated.

PREDICTION
If we had to guess who’s going home, we’d say Kirstie and Apolo. We’d rather it be Kirstie and Emmitt — not that we don’t love both of them, but they aren’t pushing their dances into new stratospheres, unlike everyone else. The other celebs look like borderline pros out there, which may actually be a downside to some fans. Maybe some people prefer to watch entertaining newbies who aren’t necessarily at the same level as the rest. It’s a toss-up.

Your turn. What’s your elimination prediction for tonight and which two do you want to leave?

Catch a new episode of Dancing With the Stars Season 15: All-Stars on Tuesday, November 13 at 8 p.m. ET/PT on ABC.

Gina Carbone is a contributing writer at Wetpaint Entertainment. Follow her on Twitter @ginacarbone.

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