It’s painful to write about the first elimination on Dancing With the Stars Season 15 All-Stars
— and not just because the door is wide open for almost anything to happen. (But let’s just assume the top half of the judges’ leaderboard is safe.)

Sure, after last night’s premiere we have an obvious bottom-of-the-pack couple in Pamela Anderson and Tristan MacManus. Their score of 17 out of 30 was two points below the next highest score. But that doesn’t mean they are goners; sometimes being on the bottom just means the fans know it’s make or break time, so they vote as many different ways as they can to save the pair. If the couple were in the middle of the pack, fans might just vote a couple of times then move on to someone considered more “in jeopardy.” Tristan, especially, has become so popular and has inspired such passionate loyalty in DWTS fans that it’s possible he could carry them into Week 2 alone. Not that he would be alone, since Pamela is the Internet’s Most Downloaded woman with her own loyal following.

Still, if Pam and Tris go home tonight, it wouldn’t be too surprising, since their routine was definitely on the rougher side when compared to the other All-Stars. However, if they are safe, what could that mean? The next couple above them is Kirstie Alley and Maksim Chmerkovskiy with 19 out of 30. Kirstie lives and breathes entertainment value — hence the kiss to Tom Bergeron at the end of her routine — and it’s unlikely she and Maks would be the first boot. Possible, but unlikely. Then what? 

Above Kirstie and Maks, but only by half a point, are Bristol Palin and Mark Ballas. This is where it really gets interesting. Two years ago, on DWTS Season 11, Bristol might’ve automatically been safe. She was the GOP poster child and a lot of viewers rallied behind her as she was attacked for even being on the show. Today there’s less buzz around the Palins and some people may wonder why she signed up for a second round of potential abuse. Bristol may not represent the Tea Party as much as Pam may think. Then again, when Pam dropped Bristol’s name last night as having the Tea Party votes behind her, maybe that got some fans irritated on Bristol’s behalf. Maybe they decided to vote for Bristol because of her “most improved” dancing (and attitude!) as a “take that” to anyone who would suggest Bristol can only get by with Republican help. Who knows.

Honestly, we’re a little worried for Joey Fatone and Kym Johnson, mostly because a lot of fans might not even think to be worried about them. It’s never good to dance first, because you run the risk of being forgotten by the end of the show. It’s also never good to end up in the middle of the pack score-wise — especially at the bottom of the middle. Joey and Kym’s Ch-Cha-Cha got a score of 20.5, putting them one point above Bristol and Mark and fourth from the bottom. That’s like the scoreboard blind spot. We hope Joey and Kym will be safe — it’s not like they don’t have their own loyal fans who appreciated their underscored routine — but there may be cause to worry.

But everyone is worried! Because everyone knows this first boot could go any which way for any number of reasons. Which couple(s) got your votes last night?

Dancing With the Stars Season 15: All-Stars Results Show airs tonight at 8 p.m. ET/PT on ABC.

Gina Carbone is a contributing writer at Wetpaint Entertainment. Follow her on Twitter @ginacarbone.

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