Three of the last four celebs to go home on Dancing With the Stars Season 15 All-Stars have been boys. Go girls! That said, we have a feeling one of the fairer sex will be leaving the ballroom tonight on the Week 4 Results Show. But which lady?

We’re not even going to include Bristol Palin in the elimination speculation anymore. It’s a losing game. This week, for the first time since Week 1, she’s not bottom of the board, it’s Kirstie Alley with a score of 30 out of 40. That’s two points below Bristol and 9.5 points below the top of the leaderboard. Bristol and Kirstie have been at the bottom for the past two weeks and it hasn’t made a difference so it’s possible it won’t make a difference this time either. But last week, Kirstie and Maksim Chmerkovskiy were “in jeopardy” during the first elimination of Drew Lachey and Anna Trebunskaya. Did that make them part of an official bottom four, with the eliminated Helio Castroneves and Chelsie Hightower and the announced bottom two of Sabrina Bryan and Louis van Amstel? Are we the only ones confused about that point?

If Kirstie and Maks were indeed second from the non-eliminated bottom, above Sabrina and Louis, perhaps that’s a sign that they could be going home this week. Maybe their fan base — always strong and loyal — just can’t keep up with the ever-increasing scores and similarly loyal fan bases of the past winners and other finalists.

But since we know Sabrina was in the actual bottom two with Helio last week — and Sabrina is the only celeb who has never made it to the finals before — we’re most worried about her. It’s possible she and Louis just don’t have enough backing, even though the devoted fans they have voted her into the competition as the 13th celeb, and they’ve been waiting years to see her get this second chance. Since she was in danger last week, it’s possible her fans rallied this week and the real celeb going home is someone more unexpected. Could it be Melissa Rycroft? She’s way up there on the leaderboard, with a score of 37 out of 40, but below her are past champions Emmitt Smith and Apolo Ohno. Yes, two past champions have already gone home, but they first made a pit stop in the bottom two. Apolo is low on the board — between Bristol and Sabrina — but he didn’t mess up last night, it was Karina Smirnoff who slipped. Chances are fans would rally to support him to make sure he’s not penalized for her little misstep. But hey, anything is possible. Maybe another male champ is heading out the door tonight. 

Since everything is a wild guess this season, the best determiner may be who has been in the bottom two before. So even though Sabrina is currently ranked fourth from the bottom, we’ll guess that she’s leaving tonight. Joey Fatone was fourth from the bottom too!

Which couple do you think is going home tonight? Remember, there is no elimination next week! So whoever remains tonight is sticking around for at least two more weeks.

Catch a new episode of Dancing With the Stars Season 15: All-Stars on Tuesday, October 16 at 8 p.m. ET/PT on ABC.

Gina Carbone is a contributing writer at Wetpaint Entertainment. Follow her on Twitter @ginacarbone.

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