Credit: ABC

The 2013 Emmys Awards are around the corner — they air this Sunday, September 22, 2013 — and it's time to get serious about placing our bets, so we've been thinking long and hard about who will take home the coveted trophy in the major categories. Let's talk one of the biggest prizes of all: Outstanding Comedy Series.

Which show will win? Which show should win? Don't worry, we have some thoughts on that.

Which Show Will Win

Here's where we think each nominee stands, in order of least to most likely winner.

Louie. This whip-smart FX comedy deserves the top spot, as we'll discuss below, but it doesn't stand a chance in hell. We're still shocked it even got nominated.

Girls. HBO's edgiest comedy is buzzy, but we're pretty sure it's a bit too out there for the Academy, which tends to play it conservative in the comedy category.  

Veep. While star Julia Louis-Dreyfus won last year and could again this year, we just don't see a compelling reason for this show to win, other than it being very, very, very funny.

30 Rock. In its early years 30 Rock racked in the Emmys, and it's possible it will get one last pat on its back for its very solid final season. The Academy does like nostalgia.

The Big Bang Theory. It's the number one comedy on TV and, as we said, the Academy likes to play it safe with comedies. If they want to switch it up, this is the obvious non-Modern Family choice.

Winner: Modern Family. That said, Modern Family has been so dominant for so long, it's hard to be against it. Yawn.

Which Show Should Win

Louie isn't just the best comedy on TV right now, it's one of the most creative and innovative TV shows of all time. Louis CK, one of the smartest, funniest comedians working right now, is given complete creative control, and the result is a bizarre, surreal, touching, twisted, brilliant kaleidoscope of stories that are normally hilarious, often moving, and always, always something we've never seen before.

What show do you think will win for Best Comedy? Which should win? Sound off in the comments below!

Rebecca Martin is an Associate Editor at Wetpaint Entertainment and our resident Game of Thrones, Breaking Bad, and genre TV expert. Follow her on Twitter and Google+!