With Game of Thrones Season 4 under a month away, fans are eager to know the fates of their favorites. Jon Snow, for instance, is supposed to step into more of a leadership role. But what does that really mean for everyone's favorite bastard? Since GoT is based on the book series A Song of Ice and Fire, we can make some good guesses about how the story will play out next season, at least in broad strokes. Here are our predictions about what's coming up for Jon based on the latter half of A Storm of Swords.

Warning: This article contains MAJOR spoilers from the A Song of Ice and Fire book series. Click away now if you don't want to know!

Disclaimer: Of course, the show may cut plot elements or even completely alter Jon's story. These are spoilers based on the books only.

The Wildlings Storm Castle Black. So remember that group of Wildlings Jon Snow just ditched? Well, they show up and storm Castle Black, and Jon leads a rag-tag team of Night’s Watch soldiers to hold the castle. In the book, the Wildling force is led by Styr, Magnar of Thenn, who has already been confirmed as a character for Season 4 — but he also dies during the invasion. We don’t think it makes much sense to introduce him just for one battle, so we think he may be taken captive and fill the role that Rattleshirt (the guy in the skeleton suit from Season 2) has in the books. Alternatively, he may show up later as part of Mance's main force. Either way, based on the promos it's clear this battle will be epic.

Ygritte Dies. Yep. We know, it sucks. Ygritte is involved in the previously mentioned storming of Castle Black. At one point, Jon sees her during the battle and aims his bow at her, but he doesn’t take the shot. Later, after the Night’s Watch wins the fight, Jon goes looking for her. He finds her dying from an arrow wound, and he’s relieved to see that it’s not one of his arrows. The two share a tear-filled goodbye, with no hard feelings, and her last words are, “You know nothing, Jon Snow.” Expect it to be one of the most emotional scenes of Season 4.

Mance Attacks The Wall. The battle at Castle Black is just an appetizer. Later, Mance Rayder leads the strength of his Wildling force (giants included) against the Wall. The Night’s Watch are few, and Maester Aemon leaves Jon in charge of the defense until reinforcements arrive from the other castles. When they do, the tables turn on Jon.

Jon Is Labeled A Traitor. Remember, there were no witnesses within the Night’s Watch when Jon became a Wildling spy, so some of those who’ve taken the black think Jon’s heart still lies on the other side of the Wall. Chief among them are Alliser Thorne and Janos Slynt, who arrive from Eastwatch (a castle on the far-east end of the Wall) and declare Jon a turncloak. They imprison Jon and determine that the only way he can prove his loyalty is to meet with Mance beyond the Wall... and kill him.

Stannis Saves The Day. Believe it or not, Season 4 may be the one where you start to care about Stannis. Crazy, right? But it’s true. As Jon is meeting with Mance in his camp, trying to figure out if he’s going to murder him or not, Stannis shows up with a bunch of knights and tears the Wildling camp to pieces. We’re pretty confident this will be included in the show, since, in the Season 3 finale, we saw Davos give Stannis the letter from the Night’s Watch asking for help. In fact, if anything the show made it even more clear that Stannis was definitely planning to head north to help.

Jon Becomes Lord Commander of The Night’s Watch. Stannis sets up camp at the Wall after his victory, and he doesn’t like the fact that there is no one in charge of the Night’s Watch, so he makes them choose a new Lord Commander. It initially looks like Janos Slynt will be chosen, which would be super lame, but then Sam hatches a plan and convinces everyone to vote for Jon. And just like that, Jon Snow becomes Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch! Yay!

We're thinking his election is where Season 4 will leave Jon Snow, setting up lots of tough decisions he’ll be forced to make as leader in Season 5.

Catch the Game of Thrones Season 4 premiere on April 6, 2014 at 9 p.m. ET/PT on HBO.

Credit: Celebified Photo: HBO to Release Game of Thrones Themed Mixtape (VIDEO)