Pretty Little Liars is a show that regularly kills off characters (and less regularly brings them back from the dead). And, here’s the thing: it’s been a while since someone died in Rosewood. We think one resident’s time will run out in Season 4B. Who will die next? Here are the four likeliest candidates.

Noel Kahn

It’s been too long, Noel Kahn (Brant Daugherty). This recurring character hasn’t show his face on PLL since Season 3, but he’s set to be back for the Season 4 finale aka the episode characters are most likely to die in. We’re not sure how or if Noel is involved in the “A” game, but we know he had some sort of stand-off with Ezra in Season 1; dated Mona while she was the Original “A;” and dated Jenna, who may know that Alison is alive. As far as we can tell, Noel makes a likely next victim of the “A” game.

Paige McCullers

Alison is back from the dead… hooray! But that doesn’t mean we trust her. Emily’s crushes tend to end up dead. Sure, Ali came back because it was fake, but we’re still counting it. And Maya is still gone for good (maybe). If Alison took out Maya because she wanted to keep Emily for herself, then Paige (Lindsey Shaw) could be her next victim. If we were Paige, we’d keep those late night swims to a minimum.

Caleb Rivers

Credit: ABC Family

Let’s face it: Caleb (Tyler Blackburn) is living on borrowed time. He full-on died in the Ravenswood fall finale (before getting revived in the hospital), and that was after spending only a week or two in Ravenswood (we’re still not sure how time passes in that spooktastic town). The Curse is out to get Caleb, which means, even if he doesn’t bite it in Rosewood, he might meet his end via ghost in the nearby town of Ravenswood. Maybe it’s cheating putting the Ravenswood man on this list, but just because Caleb has left PLL as a main character for now, doesn’t mean he’s left our hearts!

Jake

Credit: ABC Family

Yeah, remember him? Aria’s quasi-casual boyfriend in Season 4A. Now that we know Ezra is “A,” we’re kind of worried about the two-stepping, karate-fighting dude. Sure, his self-defense skills are impressive, but “A” is a clever sort. Will Ezra take Jake out in a jealous rage? We’re still not yet ready to accept that Ezra is a cold-blooded killer, but that doesn’t mean it might not be true. Until we learn more about exactly what Ezra’s deal is, why he is hunting Alison, and how he feels about Aria, we’re going to keep Jake on the list of potential suspects. Sorry, man.

Who do you think will bite it in Season 4B? Share your theories in the comments below!

Catch the Pretty Little Liars Season 4 winter premiere, Tuesday, January 7, 2014 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC Family.