Spencer Hastings (Troian Bellisario) is looking pretty guilty in the attempted murder of her bestie, Alison DiLaurentis (Sasha Pieterse), a few years ago — but is this explanation too simple? Did Spencer really hurt Ali that night? In light of Spencer’s recent breakdown on Pretty Little Liars, we’re examining the evidence.

The fight, complete with shovel

We’ve always known that Spencer and Alison fought the night Ali disappeared, but we thought the extent of their fight was some harsh words. Now we know that, after Ali coerced Spencer into telling Melissa about her kiss with Ian and Spencer told Ali she was dead to her, Spencer chased after her alleged bestie. With a shovel. Given that Alison was knocked in the head, then buried alive, you can see how this doesn’t look good for Spencer.

She has memory gaps

Worse still, Spencer can’t remember what happened next! The stressed out teenager was on her first round of Adderall abuse at this point, and was seriously out of it. After picking up the shovel, the next thing she remembers is walking back into the sleepover and telling the other Liars that she heard Ali scream. Was she the one who caused that scream? At this point, not even Spencer knows.

Her parents hired a P.I. to follow her

But her parents certainly think so. Remember that private investigator they hired back in the day to follow Melissa because they thought Melissa might have had something to do with Ali’s “death”? Well, switch all of the “Melissa”s in that sentence with “Spencer”s, and you’ve got what actually happened. Of course, Spencer’s parents’ judgment — especially when it comes to Spencer — is not the most reliable, so we’re not counting this as anything close to unimpeachable fact.

Mrs. DiLaurentis saw something

It seems that Mrs. DiLaurentis might be in on the cover-up, too. When Spencer found out her father thought she had something to do Ali’s alleged death, she remembered the conspiratorial convo she walked in on him having with Ali’s mom. When she confronts Mrs. D., asking her if she thinks she hurt Ali, Mrs. D. claims ignorance to the entire theory. If Ali’s mother did think Spence had something to do with Ali’s alleged death, we doubt even a plea from Mr. Hastings’ would convince her to stay quiet about it. (Unless he had something on her?) This makes us think that, if Mrs. D. did witness the confrontation between these two girls, it didn’t end with one of them in the ground.

Alison seems afraid of her

Whatever went down that night, Alison doesn’t seem too keen on seeing Spencer again — in fact, she might even be afraid of her. Would Alison have fled from her clandestine meetup with Emily if it had been a different Liar who crashed it? There have been frequent references to one of the Liars as untrustworthy. Ezra thinks one of them was involved in Ali’s disappearance. Was it Spencer?

Do you think Spencer hurt Alison? Why or why not? Sound off in the comments below!

Catch the next episode of Pretty Little Liars on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC Family.

Kayti Burt is a contributing writer for Wetpaint Entertainment with a penchant for all things pop culture. Follow her on Twitter and Google+!