Credit: Eric McCandless/ABC Family Channel © 2014 Disney ABC Television Group Photo: Alison on the Pretty Little Liars Season 4 Finale

Pretty Little Liars may succeed in its share of surprises, but it also has patterns that make certain plot developments easy to predict... like character deaths. Pretty Little Liars has killed off at least one of its main or recurring characters every season. Whose turn will it be in Season 5? Here are our top five predictions.

Noel Kahn

Credit: ABC Family

If there’s any position that’s dangerous on Pretty Little Liars, it’s the one closest to Ali. With “A” out to get her, the people she’s closest to end up wounded or dead. It might not even be a punishment, so much as a strategic move on “A”’s part: remove Ali’s allies, and she is vulnerable. Inconceivably, Noel (Brant Daugherty) seems to be one of Ali’s chief allies. In the Season 4 finale, he brought the Liars and Ali together, and gave Alison the documents necessary to escape NYC via plane once their meeting was over. We know Noel will be back in Season 5, and we can’t help but think that his death might be imminent.

Lucas Gottesman

Lucas (Brendan Robinson) is another familiar yet long absent face we’ll be seeing again in Season 5. Why is he back? Whose side is he on? Will he survive the season? These questions are inarguably tied together, and we’re kind of worried to know the answers. Lucas has been mixed up in the “A” game for awhile, mostly against his own will (or so he claims). He left Rosewood High to homeschool in Season 3 so he could escape this craziness. Now that he’s back, we’re worried he will be pulled back into the “A” game and that, this time, he won’t make it out alive.

CeCe Drake

Credit: ABC Family

What is the deal with CeCe Drake (Vanessa Ray)? That question was one of our chief takeaways from the Season 4 finale. CeCe claims she knows the identity of the girl who is buried in Ali’s grave. Does she also know the identity of the killer? These kinds of secrets get you killed in this town (amirite, Mrs. D.?). We doubt CeCe will survive the fifth season.

Jenna Marshall

Jenna, Jenna, wherefore art thou, Jenna (Tammin Sursok)? We caught a glimpse of the teenager in the Season 4 finale, but it was only in flashback form. Last time we saw her in the present, she was getting almost-murdered at Emily’s surprise birthday party. This girl seems marked for murder. She may run out of her nine lives in Season 5.

Mona Vanderwaal

The prospect of Mona (Janel Parrish) biting it in Season 5 seriously saddens us, but we’re not sure how much longer this girl can successfully go on scheming. She is super smart, but will her machinations eventually catch up to her? She’s almost died multiple times: when she fell off the Rosewood cliff; in the Thornhill Lodge Fire; and when “A” hid in her car to strangle her. We think Mona’s survival is dependent on how much longer Pretty Little Liars goes on as a show. We can’t imagine Pretty Little Liars without Mona, but if it’s nearing its end, Mona may be the final character on the chopping block.

Who do you think will die in Season 5? Share your theories in the comments below!

Catch the Pretty Little Liars Season 5 premiere on Tuesday, June 10, 2014 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC Family.