Credit: ABC

It seems like just a couple of weeks ago Ali Fedotowsky thought Jef Holm could win The Bachelorette Season 8. Now she’s positive Emily Maynard picks Arie Luyendyk, Jr.

Why? The Season 6 Bachelorette explained in her blog for the San Francisco Chronicle.

“Here is my reasoning: Arie got the 4th date of the season,” Ali wrote. “Based on that I am 100% sure he is the guy she picks in the end. You might be thinking I am crazy for thinking she picks him strictly based on this information and I’ll explain. I said this last season and the season before. Almost every season the one who gets the girl (or guy) in the end got the 3rd or 4th one-on-one date of the season. Why? Because you (meaning the Bachelorette) know the very first night that you like that person; therefore, you don’t feel the need to go out on a date with them the first week because you know you are keeping them the following week. Let me break this down for you guys:

Jillian’s season: Ed had 3rd date
Jake’s season: Vienna had 3rd date
My season: Roberto had 3rd date
Brad’s season: Emily had 4th date
Ashley’s season: JP had 4th date
Ben’s season is the exception. I think Courtney had 2nd date

So maybe it’s more accurate for me to say that whoever gets a date in the second week is usually the one standing in the end. Could that mean Chris might be the guy in the end? I highly doubt it. They just didn’t have the same chemistry that Emily and Arie had – heck, I didn’t think they had any chemistry at all. You know that saying, save the best one for last? Well in Bachelor world, you save the best one for third or fourth.”

(When Ali wrote “second week” she meant the second week of dates as opposed to the second episode.) We’ve already noted how getting a date on Episode 3 is a big deal and also a good sign for Arie. This is a relatively new trend, since it doesn’t work previous to Jillian Harris’ Bachelorette Season 5, but it has a pretty good success rate so far. Will Emily give us another Ben Flajnik exception or are we back on track with the Ep 3 trend?

Source: SFGate.com

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