Easy money is on the much-predicted death of Katherine Pierce (Nina Dobrev) in the 100th episode of The Vampire Diaries. And, sure, it could happen. But we’re not ready to give up on the sassy vamp-turned-human just yet. Will Katherine survive? We weigh the 500-year-old’s chances below!

Yeah, she’s totally going to die

Let’s take a look at the evidence in favor of Katherine’s death becoming a reality. Be warned: it’s sizable.

1. Her death won’t mean firing an actor. That’s right, you kill off Katherine, you still get to keep the ever-charming Nina Dobrev around as she also plays central heroine Elena Gilbert — as well as any other Petrova doppelgangers yet to come out of the woodwork. Having to let an actor go obviously doesn’t stop shows from executing a character death that works for the story, but it sure must make it a lot more awkward.

2. It’s the 100th episode. This means TVD has to pull out all of the stops to impress us. As people regularly get tortured, maimed, and temporarily killed on this show, it’s not going to be easy. Killing off a character who made her entrance at the end of Season 1? That’s pretty big.

3. The show has lost its sense of consequence. Speaking of killing people off, we think an actual death on this show would do wonders for its ever-diminishing sense of consequence. It’s hard to create suspense when we’re not seriously worried that anything will happen to the characters. Basically, TVD has to commit to a real death every once-and-a-while, and they’re totally due.

Nah, the show wouldn’t do that to us (or itself)

The good thing about a plot twisty show like TVD is it isn’t over until the extremely thin and attractive people sing (convoluted opera cliche). Here is our evidence that supports Katherine surviving:

1. She is the best part of Season 5. Listen, show: Are you really going to let go of the best character development that has happened to this show since the time Klaus (Joseph Morgan) painted Caroline (Candice Accola) a horse picture? Because that would make us sad. Watching Katherine struggle with her mortality has been part tragedy, part comedy — and we wouldn’t trade it for anything. So don’t kill her, OK?

2. Steferine just got back together. We may be using the phrase “got back together” a bit loosely, but these former lovebirds have been sharing some serious sparks on-screen lately. Not much has been working out in Stefan’s (Paul Wesley) favor since his girlfriend dumped him for his brother and he was subsequently thrown into a quarry to drown all summer — so we’re desperate to hold onto any hope at happiness for this chronic brooder. Right now, Katherine just might be his best bet.

3. What would Nadia do without her? Er, it’s going to be totally awkward for Nadia (Olga Fonda), aka Katherine’s daughter, if Katherine dies. It’s like when your friend brings their friend to a party and then your friend leaves, and no one knows who the friend’s friend is. You don’t want that to happen to Nadia, do you? Sure, she had a threesome with Matt (Zach Roerig) that one time, but that plot point can only carry a storyline so long. And we don’t want Nadia to just up and leave once Katherine bites it. Basically, it would be a lot of character setup for very little payoff, and we’re all about narrative efficiency. It’s the sustainable way to plot.

Do you think Katherine will survive? Why or why not? Sound off in the comments below!

Catch the next episode of The Vampire Diaries on Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 8 p.m. ET on the CW, followed by an all-new episode of Reign.

Kayti Burt is a contributing writer for Wetpaint Entertainment with a penchant for all things pop culture. Follow her on Twitter and Google+!